Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
